Key Private Bank Investment Brief

Key Takeaways:

FOMC buys some time as uncertainty around tariffs looms.

Key Takeaways:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC” or “The Fed”) left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%.
• The rate decision was unanimous.
• The Committee made a technical change to the pace of balance sheet run-off.
• The Fed’s projection for interest rates remained unchanged from December, but the Fed significantly altered the projections for economic growth and inflation.

Today, the Federal Reserve announced its policy decision to maintain the federal funds rate at its current target range of 4.25% to 4.50%, opting not to implement any rate cuts or rate hikes at this meeting.

The Committee revised their statement by replacing the language about the outlook being “roughly balanced” between employment and inflation to “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.” This change clearly signals concerns about the imminent tariff effects on inflation and a wide range of outcomes regarding economic growth.

Updated economic forecasts were presented at this meeting. The median policy interest rate expectations in the Summary of Economic Projections (“SEP”) were unchanged, but the average policy rate for each year increased. The median forecasts reflect 50 basis points in rate cuts for both 2025 and 2026 with another 25 basis points in rate cuts for 2027. The SEP “dot plot” showed four Committee members’ forecasts for no rate cuts in 2025, and another four forecasts for one rate cut by the end of 2025; while nine forecasts called for two rate cuts by the end of 2025.

The distribution of forecasts narrowed since December’s SEP, signaling uncertainty. These forecasts are all made in the context of excess uncertainty surrounding the intersection of fiscal, trade, immigration, and regulation policies.

The median economic projections show a modest deterioration in the economy for 2025, with real GDP growth for 2025 being adjusted downward to 1.7% from 2.1% in December 2024. Unemployment forecasts for 2025 were raised to 4.4% from 4.3%, suggesting some expected weakening in the labor market. Inflation forecasts were also revised upward, with Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation for 2025 forecasted at 2.7% up from 2.5%; while Core PCE inflation for 2025 moved to 2.8% from 2.5%.

Given the mention of uncertainty in the statement and the unchanged medians for policy rates, the revised SEP forecasts appear to be the maximum pain threshold the Committee would be willing to tolerate before they step in to cut rates again and provide more accommodation.

Finally, the Committee announced adjustments to their Quantitative Tightening (“QT”) balance sheet run-off strategy. The monthly cap for maturing U.S. Treasury securities has been reduced from $25 billion per month to $5 billion per month. The monthly cap for maturing agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities remains unchanged at $35 billion per month. These adjustments are effective as of April 1, 2025, and reflect the Committee’s efforts to manage market liquidity amid uncertainties surrounding the fiscal borrowing limit. It is important to note that Governor Christopher Waller was the only dissenter to these changes.

These changes to the economic outlook, inflation projections and balance sheet reduction strategy underscore the Committee’s response to evolving economic conditions and its commitment to adjusting monetary tools accordingly. Investors should remain cautious but optimistic, focusing on high quality and diversification, allowing for flexibility to adjust portfolio positioning based upon incoming data and further Fed decisions.

Key Takeaways:

Diversification is working.

Year-to-date (YTD) through March 14, 2025, international developed markets have gained 10.7%, emerging markets have advanced 6.6%, and the S&P 500 has lost 3.9%. High-quality fixed income has gained approximately 2.0%.

Key Wealth recommends periodic rebalancing. Despite recent outperformance, international stocks still have room to “catch up” to US equities. Too, many major international economies appear poised to undergo fiscal stimulus which has the potential to boost economic growth. The US, on the other hand, will seemingly be undergoing fiscal restraint, which may limit growth.

If portfolios have become very overweight to US equities, rebalancing likely still makes sense (it’s not too late). New Tools, such as alternatives and real assets, have also provided important diversification this year.

Economic and policy uncertainty remains elevated.

Bloomberg’s Trade Policy Uncertainty Index remains near an all-time high as President Trump begins to implement the new administration’s economic strategy.

We believe the new administration views tariffs as a primary component of a larger strategy. The plan: raise tariffs (revenues), cut expenses, deregulate, and lower taxes.

The administration’s plan is susceptible to a wide range of outcomes. Tariffs are being implemented first, given limited congressional involvement. Deregulation and expense cuts will take longer to influence the broad economy.

We think the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) will be extended, but new tax cuts are unlikely. An extension of already-existing tax policy will not provide as much fiscal impulse as we saw from the initial tax cuts in 2017 but will still be marginally positive for growth.

Consumer sentiment is deteriorating rapidly, while inflation expectations are rising.

Amidst policy uncertainty, consumer sentiment is deteriorating across all income levels, according to data from the University of Michigan and Apollo.

The same survey data shows both long-term and short-term inflation expectations rising sharply in recent months. Consumers are getting more worried about job security, and consumer spending has slowed somewhat, although spending on travel remains robust (University of Michigan and Apollo data).

Hard economic data is holding up. Credit spreads have widened, but not to alarming levels.

The labor market is holding up for now. Initial unemployment claims dipped slightly to 220,000 last week. This is a modest level, consistent with a stable labor market (initial claims are a leading indicator).

Should weekly claims rise above 300,000, we would become more concerned.

Credit spreads are generally a good coincident indicator that recession risk may be rising. Since mid-February, BB-rated high-yield spreads have risen from approximately 150 basis points (bps), to approximately 220 bps. This move is a cautionary signal, but the absolute level of spreads remains tight on a historic basis.

Bottom Line:

We remain Neutral to Risk. Investors should maintain a long-term focus through turbulence, revisit their financial plans, and rebalance as necessary. Additional short-term cash should be raised if needed for liquidity purposes; but otherwise, investors should stick to their financial plans.

As part of the rebalancing process, investors should review their exposure to US technology and growth stocks, as many portfolios have become well overweight these sectors. Rebalancing towards international, dividend-paying, and/or low volatility strategies may be appropriate in some cases.

The odds of a recession have increased, but we don’t envision a severe and sustained downturn. Tariffs may slow growth and increase inflation over the short-term, but over the intermediate- to long-term, inflation should moderate, while fewer regulations and lower taxes could boost growth.

Equity Takeaways:

Stocks rose in early Monday trading. The S&P 500 rose approximately 0.5%, to 5667, while small caps rose approximately 0.7%. International shares were generally higher.

Last Thursday, the S&P 500 officially entered correction territory by falling 10% from its recent peak. The market bounced sharply on Friday, but we believe further short-term volatility remains likely.

Last Friday morning, less than 20% of Russell 3000 constituents were trading above their 50-day moving averages – sentiment had become very negative, and we were due for a bounce, which did occur.

Eventually, we believe the current correction will run its course, and the stock market will continue higher. The administration seems to be pulling forward bad news, setting us up for a potential rally in the future.

Corporate profits remain strong. Forward 12-month earnings expectations for the S&P 500 hit a new high last Friday. The recent selloff has been driven solely by price-to-earnings multiple contraction. The fundamentals underneath the surface of the market remain favorable over the intermediate- to long-term.

Sentiment indicators matter only at extremes. Many indicators are pointing to extreme negativity by investors. As measured by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) bull/bear spread, individual investors are as bearish as they’ve been at any point in the past five years.

Fixed-Income Takeaways:

Treasury yields ended last week slightly higher due to increased treasury supply and rising European bond yields. With the recent move higher in German bund yields, US Treasuries are looking expensive on a relative basis. US yields may need to leak wider to create more interest among global investors.

In early Monday trading, 2-year Treasuries were yielding 4.05%, 5-year Treasuries 4.09%, and 10-year Treasuries 4.30%.

This week, the Federal Reserve will release an updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) on Wednesday, March 19, in conjunction with its Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Market participants will be watching this data release closely.

Both investment grade (IG) and high-yield corporate bond spreads have been moving wider in recent weeks, although spreads remain tight relative to history on an absolute basis. Investor demand remains strong.

CCC-rated bonds are tied to the weakest issuers and have the most risk should the US economy fall into a recession. As with the rest of the credit markets, CCC spreads have widened in recent weeks, but not to alarming levels. We continue to watch spreads closely for clues as to the health of the overall economy.

Key Takeaways:

As America redefines its role in the world, the world is redefining its role with America. Many asset classes have seen significant reversals in performance year-to-date.

Examples of shifting global politics include the potential for a large fiscal stimulus package in Germany, as well as an election landslide in Canada. Germany moving away from balanced budgets and rearming their military marks a significant change in policy. European defense stocks have risen sharply in anticipation of higher spending.

The US has run a significantly larger budget deficit than Germany in recent years. Today, deficit spending in the US may be peaking, while Germany, other countries in Europe, and China, may all see increased deficit spending. With the US economy benefitting from higher government spending from 2020-2024, fiscal austerity in the US could present a headwind whereas greater government spending in Germany and elsewhere could provide an economic tailwind.

Non-US developed market equities have risen 11.7% year-to-date (YTD) through March 7, 2025, while the S&P 500 is down 1.7% over the same timeframe. After years of underperformance, a catchup trade in international stocks is underway, likely with more room to run.

US equities are broadening underneath the surface. Technology and consumer discretionary are the only two sectors that have underperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date through March 7, 2025. That said, these two sectors comprise a large portion of total S&P 500 market capitalization.

Uncertainty remains very high, downside risks are rising, but an imminent recession is not likely. Tariff policy has become a major contributor to uncertainty.

Usage of the word “tariffs” has spiked on corporate earnings conference calls, according to Factset. Also, the words “tariff” and “uncertain(ty)” were peppered heavily throughout the Federal Reserve’s recent Beige Book report (per DataTrek).

Recession risk is not on the minds of CEOs and CFOs yet – amidst the uneasiness, the number of S&P 500 companies citing “recession” on earnings calls was very low in the last quarter, according to FactSet.

The sequencing of Trump’s policies is worth noting. Will we see tariffs now, and tax cuts later? Given the wide variety of unknowns, we think it is ill-advised to make major portfolio moves.

Bottom Line:

Key Wealth will be holding a national client call this upcoming Wednesday, March 12, at 1:00pm EDT. Title: “Assessing the Economy Fifty Days After Trump Took Office and Five Years After COVID-19 First Took Hold.”

Register here.

A financial planning / portfolio review can help clients navigate this period of heightened uncertainty and volatility. Investors should avoid the temptation to make major changes to portfolios in the current environment.

Adding some additional international equity exposure, versus cutting a small amount of US equity exposure, likely makes sense on a tactical basis. US stocks have outperformed on a relative basis for many years, but that dynamic may be changing.

New Tools, such as alternatives, real assets, and hedge funds, have continued to provide important portfolio ballast this year. These types of strategies can also offer downside protection during periods of market stress.

Equity Takeaways:

Stocks fell in early Monday trading. The S&P 500 fell approximately 1.8%, to 5665, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell more than 2.5%. Small caps fell approximately 1.4%. International shares were generally lower.

With Bloomberg’s Trade Policy Uncertainty index hitting record levels, equity investors have become confused. Gyrating headlines have led some investors to reduce risk, which has put pressure on the overall stock market.

The S&P 500 is at an important junction and is approaching both the 200-day moving average, the trailing 65-day low, and the autumn 2024 lows. The market should bounce at this conjunction of support.

If the S&P 500 cannot rally from the current oversold condition, another 200-300-point decline is likely, which would mark a 12-15% peak-to-trough correction (not unusual in any given year).

We are not calling for a bear market or recession. Corrections are normal.

Defensive sectors, such as consumer staples, health care, and real estate, have taken leadership amidst the uncertainty. Technology shares have lost leadership status. Other types of cyclical sectors, such as financials and energy, have also been weak on a relative basis.

Fixed-Income Takeaways:

Bond market participants are pricing in downside risks to growth amidst sticky inflation. Last week, the 2-year / 10-year Treasury curve steepened about 8 basis points as a result, with long-term Treasury yields rising relative to short-term yields.

In early Monday trading, Treasury yields were 5-10 basis points lower across the curve in a flight to safety amidst equity volatility. In summary, 2-year Treasuries were yielding 3.93%, 5-year Treasuries 3.99%, and 10-year Treasuries 4.22%.

Due to slowing growth expectations, market participants are now pricing in a total of 75 basis points of Fed Funds rate cuts by year-end 2025, with the first rate cut coming as soon as June. Earlier this year, zero rate cuts were being projected for the rest of 2025. The current Fed Funds rate is the target range of 4.25% to 4.50%.

Investment-grade (IG) corporate bond supply remains very heavy. Deals continue to price into strong demand. Spreads have drifted wider in recent weeks, but the move has been orderly.

High-yield corporate bonds seem to be trading in a vacuum. Even as equity volatility has increased in recent weeks, high-yield spreads have remained stable. Inflows into the booming private credit market have kept overall credit spreads tight, and investors remain sanguine on credit products in general.

If the economy weakens, high-yield bonds may be impacted differently at the sector level, with more economically sensitive sectors weakening first. Active management can help investors navigate volatility.

Key Takeaways:

US stocks retreated in February as concerns over a “growth scare” surfaced. In our view, such concerns are valid as elements of stagflation are emerging, but we don’t foresee an outright recession and urge investors to remain fully diversified and prepare for a wider range of outcomes than usual.

The S&P 500 fell approximately 1.3% in February and is up approximately 1.4% year-to-date (YTD) through February 28, 2025. The small cap S&P 600 fell 5.7% in February and is down about 3.0% YTD.

Value stocks have outperformed growth stocks, with sectors like health care, financials, and consumer staples leading the market (each up approximately 8.0% YTD). Technology (down 4.2%) and consumer discretionary (down 5.4%) have been the worst two S&P 500 sectors YTD.

Overall earnings growth was strong in Q4:2024, with earnings rising approximately 18% versus Q4:2023 according to FactSet. Expectations for 2025 earnings growth have downshifted slightly, however.

FactSet now projects 12.1% S&P 500 earnings growth for FY:2025, versus expectations for 14.6% growth a few months ago. Softening earnings expectations have likely contributed to the market volatility we have seen over the past few months (although earnings growth estimates have stabilized in recent weeks).

International stocks are off to a strong start YTD, with the MSCI EAFE Index (non-US developed) rising 7.3% YTD.

While the S&P 500 was only approximately 1.4% higher over the first two months of the year, European shares, including the UK, have generally risen 8-13% YTD. The rally has been broad, including defense stocks and tech companies.

European shares have been bolstered by the potential for further European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts, prospects of peace in the Ukraine/Russia war, and strong demand for luxury goods and a surge in European defense stocks. Lack of immediate US tariffs has also stoked optimism, but that notion may soon be tested.

In addition, just as Europe is seriously considering re-armament, some leaders are advocating for increased fiscal spending (a removal of the so-called “debt brake”), which could increase long-term growth.

Lastly, European shares had underperformed their US counterparts for quite some time, and some reversion to the mean is likely occurring. Investor sentiment had grown extremely bearish, and relative valuations were also extreme. European shares remain much cheaper than their US counterparts on a price/earnings (P/E) basis.

Investors should remain overweight US equities relative to international stocks, but rebalancing towards long-term strategic targets is likely warranted (especially for investors who are significantly overweight US equities).

Estimates for Q1:2025 US economic growth downshifted last week as imports surged.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow real GDP estimate for Q1:2025 US economic growth fell sharply last week, from +2.3% to a decline of -1.5%. We don’t believe the economy is contracting, however.

A negative trade gap subtracts from GDP growth. US goods imports surged in January, worsening the trade gap. Businesses most likely tried to pre-buy ahead of tariffs, which had the mechanical effect of pushing GDP estimates lower.

This effect will likely prove temporary, but in the meantime, headline economic growth will slow.

Housing market activity is slowly recovering. Prices remain expensive relative to historic levels.

In January 2025, there were 1.57 million homes for sale, up 13% year-over-year, according to data from Redfin and Goldman Sachs. The median days on the market was 56 days, highest since March 2020. The number of newly listed homes was up 8% year-over-year in January but remains relatively low.

While homeowner vacancy rates ticked higher, mortgage delinquency rates remain historically low. The percentage of mortgages with negative equity also remains historically low.

Prices remain high. The mortgage payment to income ratio remains elevated, as it has been over the past several years. Persistently weak housing affordability is constraining the market’s ability to absorb growing housing supply.

Bottom Line:

President Trump is redefining the role of government in America while simultaneously redefining America’s role in the world. Investors should remain fully diversified, including an allocation to international equities, which have generally outperformed US equities year-to-date.

New Tools, such as alternatives, real assets, and hedge funds, have continued to provide important portfolio ballast this year. These types of strategies can also offer downside protection during periods of market stress.

Equity Takeaways:

After briefly rising after the market open, stocks fell in early Monday trading. The S&P 500 fell approximately 0.3%, to 5935. Small caps dipped approximately 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell approximately 0.5%.

Policy uncertainty has skyrocketed. Strategists and money managers across Wall Street are confused. As we move through the current adjustment phase, markets will likely remain volatile.

A little over a week ago, the S&P 500 set a new high, which proved to be a false breakout. Stocks have moved lower over the past week, but we believe the current long-term uptrend remains intact. We believe the recent weakness is likely a pullback within this uptrend.

Forward 12-month S&P 500 earnings estimates have inflected higher once again in recent weeks, which should support stocks over an intermediate- to long-term time horizon. As we have noted many times in the past, earnings growth should eventually bode well for stocks.

Underneath the surface of the market, we have seen a significant rotation towards defensives. Factors like momentum and high beta have underperformed in recent weeks. High-beta stocks were expensive entering 2025, so the recent rotation may be a normal recalibration and not something more nefarious.

The artificial intelligence (AI) theme is breaking down. AI-oriented stocks (including large technology companies) have been weaker than the overall market over the past month. This price action bears close watching given big tech’s heavy weighting within the overall indices.

Fixed-Income Takeaways:

Treasury yields continued lower last week in a parallel shift, with intermediate Treasury yields dropping approximately 20 basis points across the curve. Fears of slowing economic growth pushed yields lower. In general, Treasury yields have been dropping since mid-January.

In early Monday trading, 2-year Treasuries were yielding 4.00%, 5-year Treasuries 4.00%, and 10-year Treasuries 4.20%.

Another sign of slowing growth expectations – the 3-month / 10-year Treasury curve has re-inverted. Specifically, 3-month T-bills were yielding 4.30% in early Monday trading, approximately 10 basis points higher than 10-year Treasury yields.

Just a week ago, market participants were not expecting any Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Now, approximately 50-75 basis points of cuts are projected. The current Fed Funds rate is the range of 4.25% to 4.50%.

Corporate credit spreads moved wider last week amidst the rally in Treasuries. The move wider was orderly, and demand for corporate credit remains strong.

Over time, corporate spreads tend to correlate with Bloomberg’s US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Recently, spreads have remained tight even as uncertainty has increased. Corporate credit seems to be trading in a vacuum amidst strong demand – a situation that bears watching.

Key Takeaways:

Market participants are confused. The “bark” of tariffs is already having a “bite”.

Bloomberg’s US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index has spiked in recent months and has reached its highest level since 2019. Confusion around tariffs, and other policies being discussed by the new Administration, is the likely culprit.

The Wall Street Journal recently highlighted growing speculation in options, meme stocks and crypto as signs of frothy activity. At the same time, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Bull to Bear ratio has reached its lowest level since mid-2023, a sign of growing pessimism.

Despite this confusion, the stock market remains near all-time highs. Investors should remain focused on their long-term financial plans and rebalance as necessary.

The stock market is broadening underneath the surface as investors rotate away from technology.

Through Friday, February 21, 2025, the S&P 500 was up 2.4% year-to-date (YTD). Eight of eleven sectors have outperformed the index YTD. After leading in 2024, technology and consumer discretionary have been the two weakest sectors YTD.

Thus far in 2025, the S&P 500 has been led higher by sectors such as health care and consumer staples, each up 6.5% YTD through February 21, 2025. Utilities (up 6.1% YTD), energy (up 6.0%), and financials (up 5.1%) are also off to strong starts.

The US dollar is losing momentum versus a global currency basket. International stocks are perking up.

We at Key Wealth have been longtime dollar bulls, and still believe the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. That said, if the US dollar were to weaken further versus global currencies, international stocks would have a significant tailwind.

The US has a high fiscal deficit relative to GDP compared to the rest of the world. US inflation remains sticky relative to the Federal Reserve’s target. In short, US policymakers have less room to cut rates and less capacity for additional fiscal stimulus compared to other nations.

Bottom Line:

Key Wealth remains overweight US equities, but we continue to recommend international diversification within client portfolios. Periodic rebalancing is advisable, as large US indices have outperformed in recent years and have become heavily weighted toward large technology companies.

Stocks and bonds are once again moving together and have become positively correlated. Bonds may not provide their typical diversification benefits amidst continued strong economic growth and sticky inflation.

New Tools, such as alternatives, real assets, and hedge funds, provide additional important diversification in the current environment. These types of strategies can also offer downside protection during periods of market stress.

Equity Takeaways:

Stocks dipped in early Monday trading. The S&P 500 fell approximately 0.2%, while small caps fell approximately 0.3%. International shares were mixed.

Despite poor performance late last week, the S&P 500 remains in a defined uptrend, with an all-time high set as recently as last Wednesday, February 19. Solid earnings growth continues to underpin the market.

A very large technology company will report earnings on Wednesday, February 26. Near-term overall market sentiment will largely hinge on these results.

Individual investor sentiment, as measured by the AAII Bull to Bear ratio, has become more bearish over the past few months even as the stock market has remained near all-time highs. Put another way, the market is holding up well amidst uncertainty around tariffs and government policy.

Large technology-oriented stocks (aka the Magnificent 7) have performed poorly relative to the S&P 500 YTD. This broader participation is a healthy sign underneath the surface.

Fixed-Income Takeaways:

Treasury yields moved slightly lower across the curve last week. A weak University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and soft data on the services sector dragged yields lower late last week.

In early Monday trading, 2-year Treasuries were yielding 4.21%, 5-year Treasuries 4.26%, and 10-year Treasuries 4.42%. In the 5-10 year portion of the curve, yields have dropped 30-40 basis points since mid-January.

Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are taking a wait-and-see approach regarding inflation and future interest rate cuts. The Fed remains concerned about sticky inflation and does not want to cut rates further until additional progress is shown.

Market participants are now projecting fewer than 25 basis points of rate cuts for all of 2025, with the Fed Funds rate expected to end 2025 just above 4.00%. The current Fed Funds rate is the range of 4.25% to 4.50%.

Corporate bond spreads moved slightly wider late last week amidst a choppy equity market. The widening was orderly – not a sign of panic. Spreads remain very tight compared to historical averages.